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Moreover, European statistics are of uneven quality, long time series are not available, and data definitions differ across countries and sources.
Findings Methodology Data sources FAQs The CEPR Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is composed of nine CEPR researchers, establishes the chronology of recessions and expansions of the eleven-original euro-area member countries plus Greece for 1970-1998, and of the entire euro area from 1999 onwards.
The Committee had to adapt the NBER definition, however, to reflect specific features of the euro area.
The CEPR Committee’s task is significantly different from that of the NBER.
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The NBER does not define a recession in terms of two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP.
This post-recession recovery is commensurate with that of the US recovery, considering it began later, after the double-dip European recession that followed the global financial crisis. Since then there have been five complete cyclical episodes (recession followed by expansion).
We are well aware of the potential shortcomings of the H-P filter particularly its sensitivity to end points.
Sismondi and his contemporary Robert Owen, who expressed similar but less systematic thoughts in 1817 Report to the Committee of the Association for the Relief of the Manufacturing Poor, both identified the cause of economic cycles as overproduction and underconsumption, caused in particular by wealth inequality.
They advocated government intervention and socialism, respectively, as the solution.
Business cycles are usually measured by considering the growth rate of real gross domestic product.
Despite the often-applied term cycles, these fluctuations in economic activity do not exhibit uniform or predictable periodicity.
The euro area groups together a set of different countries.